How to read the Babadağ launch forecast

First: this is a forecast

Launch statuses are computed from the weather model. The official launch and single/tandem decision rests with the Fethiye Slot Service Centre and the launch marshal, and the marshal's call always comes first. A number labelled "live wind" on the site only comes from a fresh station measurement; there is currently no live measurement at each launch.

Reading order

1. Status and reason: Suitable, Risky or Closed, with the most important reason next to it (e.g. "launch in cloud", "rain", "wind outside the sector").
2. Direction sector: the operators define the wind directions each launch accepts; the current sector is shown on every launch page.
3. Wind layer: at 1700, 1800, 1900 and 1965 the take-off wind is computed from the pressure level at launch altitude (about 900–800 hPa). The 10 m surface wind shows the valley and sea breeze; if the two oppose each other the status shows "Confirm on site". 1200 sits in the valley layer, so it uses the surface forecast.
4. Speed, gusts and crosswind: default thresholds: speed is Risky at 20 km/h and Closed at 30 km/h; the gust spread is checked separately (its limit is on each launch page). The crosswind component across the launch axis is shown in the panel.
5. Cloud base: compared with the launch altitude (below).
6. Rain, thunderstorms, daylight: rain, thunderstorms, the Dalaman METAR warning and the last-flight time feed the decision.
7. Landing area: if landing is not suitable, every launch shows Closed or Risky for the same hour.

What does "Confirm on site" mean?

When the model is not sure of the data behind a decision it shows "Confirm on site" and asks for verification. Typical cases: the model direction is outside the launch sector but Babadağ's terrain can turn the wind; the wind is below 5 km/h and the direction is unreliable (at 1200 the direction gate is not applied in calm air); the models disagree; rain data could not be fetched. It does not mean "do not fly"; it means the launch marshal and the Slot Centre need to confirm. If there is a real risk reason such as layer conflict, landing risk or gusts, the status stays Risky.

Cloud base and launch altitude: the 5 October example

Cloud base is compared with each launch's own altitude. If the base falls below the launch altitude the launch counts as in cloud and shows Closed; within 500 m of the altitude it shows Risky (default threshold). If a lower launch is in cloud, flights from the launches above it would descend through that layer, so those launches show Closed too.

On the afternoon of 5 October 2026 the field reported exactly this: cloud base was about 1,400 m, flights continued from 1200 and 1700 m and above were in cloud. On the site the base is computed at launch level from the humidity profile on pressure levels and from the surface forecast; the lower of the two applies. When the sky clears (total cloud cover drops) the high launches show open again.

Related pages

Launches and wind sectors · Single and tandem status · Opposing wind layers · Meteorology guide

Page text last updated: 23 October 2026. This page is informational. The flight decision is made on site by the pilot, the launch marshal and the Fethiye Slot Service Centre. Fethiye Slot Service Centre (SHM) ↗